Most Iranians under 30 years of age are pro-western and are fully in awe of the military might of the United States in neighbouring Iraq to the west, where Saddam Hussein was deposed and in Afghanistan to the east, where the Taliban were displaced. Young Iranians agree with their government on only one issue - nuclear capacity.
The Chinese, Indian and Persian Empires
Iranians see themselves as one of the three great Asian empires in terms of the three dominant empires in Asian history - the Chinese Qin Dynasty which united China, the Indian Moghul Empire that dominated the Indian sub-continent for a thousand years and the Persian Empire that ruled from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean.
This influence continues today because Iran has an influence in Syria, Lebanon and increasingly in Shi'ite governed Iraq. The Iranian regime has lost all legitimacy with its middle classes during the 2009 Green uprising, the country is divided between Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; its economy is in turmoil, subject to sanctions and its leadership of the Muslim world has been removed by the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria. Iran has endured an eight year war of attrition with Iraq.
The Middle East Mess
The Middle East is the most dangerous region in the world with unrest affecting 7 million Israelis, 4 million Palestinians and 200 million Arabs and ultimately one billion Muslims worldwide. Western policies have been most harmful in the Middle East. One rare benefit of the illegal invasion of Iraq is a new fear of Iran among the Sunni Arab states with Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia inclined to make peace with Israel.
Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) States
China, France, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom and the United States, the five official nuclear weapons states and co-incidentally the five permanent members of the Security Council agreed the five countries would seek universal disarmament and prevent others from acquiring nuclear weapons at all.
The nuclear states' decision to ignore Israel's nuclear weapons program was especially damaging to their authority. No nuclear weapons state has ever publicly acknowledged Israel's possession of nuclear weapons. When India and Pakistan tested their first nuclear weapons in 1998 the international community responded with sanctions against India with Australia and Canada remaining silent about Israel's atomic facility in Dimona, northern Israel. India's unanimous rejection of the NPT ensured the treaty is dead.
Republican Candidates Support Strikes on Iran
Most Republican candidates involved in the 2012 US Presidential election want a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Fortunately, US President George Bush vetoed such an attack on Iran by ardent neoconservative advisers. A wave of Jihadist violence led by Hamas and Hezbollah could have been the consequence.
Containment of Iran is a Policy of the Obama Administration
Containment of Iran is a definite policy of President Obama even though he cannot admit it publicly. US officials cornered Ahmadinejad at the United Nations thereby exposing Iran's secret nuclear site near Qom. This was widely publicised in the media in 2010. The Obama administration is more successful at rallying international sanctions against Iran than the Bush administration. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently visited and inspected the Qom site. The former chief of Israel's Mossad, Meir Dagan stated that 'the military option is far from being the preferred one for Israel there are still means that are far more effective.' Still, Netanyahu could take impulsive action against Iran contrary to all advice.
The Future
Iran is an advanced country seeking nuclear capacity it is an oil producing nation with a population of 75 million. University students opposing Ahmadinejad are banned from university for life. Ahmadinejad was one of the students who forced the exile of the Shah of Iran in 1979. Half the Iranian population are under 30 years of age and are passionately pro-Western. Iran suffered 1.5 million dead in the 1980-88 Iran Iraq war and refuse to go to war again. Iran's nuclear programme should be contained in the interest of peace in the region.
Sources
- Foreign Affairs Volume 87, Number 3 Canada Post Publication, 2009 Print Publication
- Newsweek Israeli Threat to Bomb Iran No Bluff
- The Daily Beast Newsweek Covert War against Iran's Nuclear program
Michael Manning - ' The best lack all conviction while the worst are full of passionate intensity' W.B.Yeats
